When the Hype Bubble Turns to Indifference

As part of the generation that grew up through a series of hype cycles - from clacker balls through Deeley Bobbers and Rubik's Cube to iPod and on to iPhone and iPad I have an observation.

Hype and hysteria always peak and then turn to indifference - leaving the former hype subject to a few enthusiasts.

Here in the UK, Line Dancing was once the most popular exercise for millions with classes and events advertised everywhere. Now there a few thousands of loyal people continuing to enjoy their hobby and the hype grazers have moved on to other passions.

So, why do people move on? Will the current Apple hype cycle peak and burst?

Consumer based hype cycles are nothing to worry about - the vast majority of the people who are sucked in to the wave of hype and part with 2 to 3 times the price of a nearest competitor can afford it.

What about the hype cycles that spawn thousands of small businesses though? Where honest hard working people are sucked in to packing in jobs and re-mortgaging houses. Magnets, herbs, creams, solar panels - there are countless examples.

If you are considering a business based on a hype trend, it pays to think carefully before you bet your financial security on it. You need to look at the people who are desperate for you to buy a franchise or a license. Where do they make their money? Is it from selling you an expensive license or initial stock? Or is it from your long term success? Take advice. Listen to Accountants, Business Advisers and to your bank. Business professionals have seen these things many times before - they cannot make your decision for you but they can at least make you really think through the realistic potential of your business dream.

The only people who make money out of hype cycles are those at the beginning and those at the top.

When a hype cycle turns to indifference, make sure you are not left with a garage or industrial unit full of Deeley Bobbers (or the 21st century equivalent).

And there are some lessons for large firms too. In many industries, it has become fashionable to surf a wave of hype. Voice communications was all about IP 8-10 years ago. Now it is on the Unified Commmunications hype bubble. Electronic security systems are in the middle of their own IP wave. In each case, some of the products aligned to the hype bubble are warmed-up versions of previous generation products with a few extra features and an expensive re-brand. Intelligent buyers can see through these distractions. Be careful not to alienate your customer base - especially if your products are not quite "hype ready" - or whatever the term is in your industry.

Trust

One of my tweets, which was quite complex for 115 characters (leave 25 for the re-tweet!) was copied last week – by one of my followers. As I follow back, and was early for a meeting, I spotted the transgression – which was identical down to the last dot. This reminded me that it is a long time since I looked at Trust in the business environment.

We all spend a lot of our time working on our business image. We do this in order to:

• Generate awareness of ourselves and our businesses;
• Build trust with our target audience;
• Demonstrate that we are credible suppliers who can be trusted.

Before people will deal with us, they need to trust us. Just how much they need to trust us will depend on the nature of our business.

Things to think about:

• That trust upon which we depend has to be earned. It is not ours by right.
• It takes time to establish trust with a new contact.
• Our social media interactions are an important element in our marketing and have to demonstrate the same integrity as all our other marketing activities.

How much Trust is Sufficient?
Any new contact will have their own perception of just how much they need to trust you before they will confirm a transaction. Both the trust required and the time to achieve it will be a function of several variables:

• What is at stake;
  - Cost;
  - Non-financial impact of failure;
• Complexity;
• The contact’s own knowledge and experience.

Credibility

To be trusted to do something is to be a credible supplier of that product or service. Credibility is derived from:

1. Truth – you portray the best possible image of your business but do so honestly.
2. Behaviour – you keep your promises and you behave in the same way at all times – not showing one character in public and another in private.
3. Caring – you care more about the outcomes for your customers and the quality of your work that contributes to those outcomes than you do about other factors.
4. Skills and experience – you can prove that you have the skills and abilities that you are selling. This means promoting your strengths as they suit the opportunity – not promoting the skills you would like to have in order to win a piece of work.
5. Responsibility – you take responsibility for the outcomes of your work and you make sure that problems and issues are rectified.

Further reading:
Stephen M.R. Covey with Rebecca R. Merrill, The Speed of Trust, Simon & Schuster, ISBN-10: 0-7432-9560-9

Note: No politicians were harmed in the writing of this article